As Dogecoin (DOGE) retests a key multi-year support, some analysts predict a bearish outlook for the largest memecoin by market capitalization, warning that its bottom may not be in yet.
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Dogecoin Targets Lower Levels
On Thursday, Dogecoin erased most of its early-week bounce and retested the $0.090 area once again. Market observer Rekt Capital highlighted DOGE’s recent performance, warning that its price correction may not be over yet.
As he explained, the leading memecoin lost its multi-year macro uptrend back in November, when it closed the month below its ascending support that had held since early 2023.
Therefore, Dogecoin officially confirmed its macro downtrend, which started developing after its cycle peak of $0.484 during the late 2024 bull run. The analyst noted that historically, the cryptocurrency has not retested the macro downtrend line until the price is ready to break it and post-breakout retest it.
Based on this, he warned that the memecoin is “unlikely to test this Macro Downtrend anytime soon.” At the moment, DOGE is sitting at its range low, which is also a key reaction zone that previously acted as resistance before turning into support in 2024.
According to Rekt Capital, previous bear market performance suggests that Dogecoin will likely lose the current area as support over time, but noted that the price could see a rebound as part of a range-bound cluster in the meantime.
If history is any indicator, then price would likely fall well short of the Macro Downtrend and instead reject from the Range High resistance (red region). Perhaps even upside wicking beyond it, but still falling substantially short of the downtrend itself.
The analyst concluded that a short-term relief rally remains possible as long as the current level holds, but cautioned that it may be lost in the coming months before bottoming at significantly lower levels.
The Case For DOGE’s Price
Despite the bearish forecast, other market watchers have shared a more optimistic outlook for the memecoin. Analyst Trader Tardigrade recently signaled that Dogecoin may have reached its bottom already and could be preparing for its next bull run.
Per the chart, the cryptocurrency is retesting a historical support for the third time. This trendline has held for roughly a decade, and its retests have previously preceded major price rallies.
The first touch in 2017 led to an explosive rally toward its 2018 $0.017 all-time high (ATH), while the second retest in 2021 was followed by a massive surge toward its current ATH of $0.731.
Now, Dogecoin is testing this area again and could begin recovering in the short- to mid-term before a massive price expansion to new highs in the mid- to long-term, if it follows its past performances.
Similarly, the analyst has also argued that DOGE’s macro structure remains intact, regardless of short-term price action. Last week, he affirmed that the memecoin’s performance during each of its ATH rallies “tells the same story—because Doge makes its own rules.”
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He highlighted that the cryptocurrency currently resembles its past ATH performances, nearing the end of the falling wedge pattern that has preceded significant price expansion to new highs during previous rallies.
As a result, he considers Dogecoin to be at a “prime accumulation window” before it potentially goes to the moon.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
